oihfedfhorigiojisdeffandomcom-20200214-history
Bherthbtbh
Then they expanded the study to the other seven legislators, with some alterations. This time, instead of not getting a letter, the control group got a letter from their legislator that didn't mention issue positions at all. Additionally, the content of the policy letters was varied, with some constituents getting brief ones merely stating their legislator's position, and other getting a long letter arguing for the position in detail. The issues here were more varied, including a minimum wage increase, vouchers, the introduction of a state-sponsored pension plan, and a plan for non-partisan redistricting. For both waves of the study, the constituents were surveyed again after receiving (or not) their letters. How voter opinions changed The study suggests that Ohio Senator Rob Portman's conversion on same-sex marriage increased support for it among Ohioans. (Mark Wilson / Getty) For the first study, with one legislator, Broockman and Butler find that the letters "significantly moved his constituents' opinions to be more in line with his policy positions." Voters who disagreed with the legislator but got a letter were 6.5 percent more likely to agree with him in the follow-up survey. For the second, bigger study, voters getting a letter laying out their legislator's disagreements were about 5 percent more likely to agree in the follow-up than people who got a letter without issue positions stated. There's reason to believe that most respondents read the letters they got. In the first study, over 50 percent of respondents getting a letter remembered getting it in a survey performed after the follow-up, compared to just 20 percent of those not getting the letter who erroneously reported receiving one. in the second study, over 60 percent of respondents said they remembered receiving a letter, and voters who got policy letters were likelier to correctly identify their legislators' positions. They further found that opinion change was no more likely when an extensive argument was included in the letter; the legislators aren't persuading people with reason and evidence, but with the bare fact that they're the ones holding the positions in question. And legislators didn't suffer a loss in support from constituents they didn't convince: "citizens who received letters from their legislators taking positions they had disagreed with previously evaluated their legislators no less favorably." And while responses to the letters varied for different issue areas, they didn't differ so much that the results were "driven by a small set of atypical issues." Broockman and Butler point out that the effect they found should, if anything, be stronger in real-life situations. Few people know who their state legislator is, or have much of an idea of what their opinions are on anything, and the study only provided a single letter, whereas for higher offices voters get "dozens of reminders about where well-known and potentially well-liked political leaders stand on issues." For example, the study would predict that Republican Senator Rob Portman's conversion to supporting same-sex marriage increased support for marriage equality among Ohioans, but the fact that Portman's conversion was huge news that many voters likely heard multiple times likely magnified the effect's size. There's a lot more to explore here. The study can't tell us how much bigger the effect is when, say, the legislator and constituent are members of the same party, and we don't know whether the phenomenon revealed here overwhelms the opposite effect, of voter preferences on politicians' stances on issues. But the very fact that politicians have a powerful effect on voter opinions is troubling for many conceptions of democracy. The paper ends by quoting the Oxford political theorist David Miller defining democracy as "the aggregation of independently-formed preferences." "Our studies," Broockman and Butler conclude, "provide a rare window into democracy functioning in precisely the opposite manner: distributing issue positions taken by politicians to citizens."